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Global
Total Ozone Change
Total Column Ozone
• Average total
ozone values in 2006–2009 have remained at the same level for the past decade,
about 3.5% and 2.5% below the 1964–1980 averages respectively for 90°S–90°N
and 60°S–60°N. Average
total ozone from CCM simulations behaves in a manner similar to observations
between 1980 and 2009. The average column ozone for 1964–1980 is chosen as a
reference for observed changes for two reasons: 1) reliable ground-based
observations sufficient to produce a global average are available in this
period; 2) a significant trend is not discernible in the observations during
this period.
• Southern
Hemisphere midlatitude (35°S–60°S) annual mean total column ozone amounts
over the period 2006–2009 have remained at the same level as observed during
1996–2005, approximately 6% below the 1964–1980 average. Simulations
by CCMs also show declines of the same magnitude between 1980 and 1996, and
minimal change after 1996, thus both observations and simulations are consistent
with the expectations of the impact of ODSs on southern midlatitude ozone.
• Northern
Hemisphere midlatitude (35°N–60°N) annual mean total column ozone amounts
over the period 2006–2009 have remained at the same level as observed during
1998–2005, approximately 3.5% below the 1964–1980 average. A
minimum about 5.5% below the 1964–1980 average was reached in the mid-1990s.
Simulations by CCMs agree with these measurements, again showing the consistency
of data with the expected impact of ODSs. The simulations also indicate that the
minimum in the mid-1990s was primarily caused by the ozone response to effects
of volcanic aerosols from the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo.
• The latitude
dependence of simulated total column ozone trends generally agrees with that
derived from measurements, showing large negative trends at Southern Hemisphere
mid and high latitudes and Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes for the period of
ODS increase. However, in
the tropics the statistically significant range of trends produced by CCMs (−1.5
to −4 Dobson units per decade (DU/decade)) does not agree with the trend
obtained from measurements (+0.3 ± 1 DU/decade).
Ozone Profiles
• Northern Hemisphere
midlatitude (35°N–60°N) ozone between 12 and 15 km decreased between 1979
and 1995, and increased between 1996 and 2009. The
increase since the mid-1990s is larger than the changes expected from the
decline in ODS abundances.
• Northern
Hemisphere midlatitude (35°N–60°N) ozone between 20 and 25 km declined
during 1979–1995 and has since ceased to decline. Observed
increases between 1996 and 2008 are statistically significant at some locations
but not globally.
• Northern
Hemisphere midlatitude (35°N–60°N) ozone between 35 and 45 km measured using
a broad range of ground-based and satellite instruments ceased to decline after
the mid-1990s, consistent with the leveling off of ODS abundances. All
data sets show a small ozone increase since that time, with varying degrees of
statistical significance but this increase cannot presently be attributed to ODS
decrease because of observational uncertainty, natural ozone variability, and
stratospheric cooling. CCMs simulate the ozone response to changes in ODSs and
increases in greenhouse gases; analysis of CCM results suggests that longer
observational records are required to separate these effects from each other and
from natural variability.
• In the
midlatitude upper stratosphere (35–45 km) of both hemispheres, the profile
ozone trends derived from most CCMs from 1980 to 1996 agree well with trends
deduced from measurements. The
agreement in both magnitude and shape of the ozone trends provides evidence that
increases in ODSs between 1980 and 1996 are primarily responsible for the
observed behavior.
• In the tropical lower
stratosphere, all simulations show a negative ozone trend just above the
tropopause, centered at about 18–19 km (70–80 hectoPascals, hPa), due to an
increase in upwelling. The
simulated trends in the lower tropical stratosphere are consistent with trends
deduced for 1985–2005 from Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE II)
satellite data, although uncertainties in the SAGE II trends are large. The
near-zero trend in tropical total ozone measurements is inconsistent with the
negative trend found in the integrated SAGE I + SAGE II stratospheric profiles.
The tropospheric ozone column does not increase enough to resolve this
discrepancy.

Polar Ozone Observations and
Interpretation
• The Antarctic
ozone hole continued to appear each spring from 2006 to 2009. This
is expected because decreases in stratospheric chlorine and bromine have been
moderate over the last few years. Analysis shows that since 1979 the abundance
of total column ozone in the Antarctic ozone hole has evolved in a manner
consistent with the time evolution of ODSs. Since about 1997 the ODS amounts
have been nearly constant and the depth and magnitude of the ozone hole have
been controlled by variations in temperature and dynamics. The October mean
column ozone within the vortex has been about 40% below 1980 values for the past
fifteen years.
• Arctic winter
and spring ozone loss has varied between 2007 and 2010, but remained in a range
comparable to the values that have prevailed since the early 1990s. Chemical
loss of about 80% of the losses observed in the record cold winters of 1999/2000
and 2004/2005 has occurred in recent cold winters.
• Recent
laboratory measurements of the chlorine monoxide dimer (ClOOCl) dissociation
cross section and analyses of observations from aircraft and satellites have
reaffirmed the fundamental understanding that polar springtime ozone depletion
is caused primarily by the ClO + ClO catalytic ozone destruction cycle, with
significant contributions from the BrO + ClO cycle.
• Polar
stratospheric clouds (PSCs) over Antarctica occur more frequently in early June
and less frequently in September than expected based on the previous satellite
PSC climatology. This
result is obtained from measurements by a new class of satellite instruments
that provide daily vortex-wide information concerning PSC composition and
occurrence in both hemispheres. The previous satellite PSC climatology was
developed from solar occultation instruments that have limited daily coverage.
• Calculations constrained to
match observed temperatures and halogen levels produce Antarctic ozone losses
that are close to those derived from data. Without
constraints, CCMs simulate many aspects of the Antarctic ozone hole, however
they do not simultaneously produce the cold temperatures, isolation from middle
latitudes, deep descent, and high amounts of halogens in the polar vortex.
Furthermore, most CCMs underestimate the Arctic ozone loss that is derived from
observations, primarily because the simulated northern winter vortices are too
warm.
Ultraviolet Radiation
Ground-based
measurements of solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation (wavelength 280–400
nanometers) remain limited both spatially and in duration. However, there have
been advances both in reconstructing longer-term UV records from other types of
ground-based measurements and in satellite UV retrievals. Where these UV data
sets coincide, long-term changes agree, even though there may be differences in
instantaneous, absolute levels of UV.
• Ground-based
UV reconstructions and satellite UV retrievals, supported in the later years by
direct ground-based UV measurements, show that erythemal ("sunburning")
irradiance over midlatitudes has increased since the late 1970s, in qualitative
agreement with the observed decrease in column ozone. The
increase in satellite-derived erythemal irradiance over midlatitudes during 1979–2008
is statistically significant, while there are no significant changes in the
tropics. Satellite estimates of UV are difficult to interpret over the polar
regions.
• In the
Antarctic, large ozone losses produce a clear increase in surface UV radiation. Ground-based
measurements show that the average spring erythemal irradiance for 1990–2006
is up to 85% greater than the modeled irradiance for 1963–1980, depending on
site. The Antarctic spring erythemal irradiance is approximately twice that
measured in the Arctic for the same season.
• Clear-sky UV observations
from unpolluted sites in midlatitudes show that since the late 1990s, UV
irradiance levels have been approximately constant, consistent with ozone column
observations over this period.
•
Surface UV levels and trends have also been significantly influenced by clouds
and aerosols, in addition to stratospheric ozone. Daily measurements under
all atmospheric conditions at sites in Europe and Japan show that erythemal
irradiance has continued to increase in recent years due to net reductions in
the effects of clouds and aerosols. In contrast, in southern midlatitudes, zonal
and annual average erythemal irradiance increases due to ozone decreases since
1979 have been offset by almost a half due to net increases in the effects of
clouds and aerosols.
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